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Your comment made me think (O, the pain).
The borehole could easily be activated into an unmoderated scrum. Let folks post directly and send denialist stuff there, with a standard placeholder/link in the original thread.
That lets those who want to rattle each other’s cages without mucking up the site. Heck, I’d probably let off some steam there. Thoughts?
A study figured the deaths due to the Americas’ depopulation and linked the answer (perhaps 50 million) to ice core data…
“and what we see from this study is the scale of what’s required, because the Great Dying resulted in an area the size of France being reforested and that gave us only a few ppm. This is useful; it shows us what reforestation can do. But at the same, that kind of reduction is worth perhaps just two years of fossil fuel emissions at the present rate.”
Concluding an admonition to depoliticize something with a link to Politico often ends as badly as predicting that the world will end before you leave the White House.
Unless there is some factor specifically related to CO2, this phenomenon should have also occurred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum, right? Given how warm it was then elsewhere, there should be proxy evidence of extreme cold in the regions currently warmed by the Gulf Stream. Anyone looking for that in those 20K papers?
Are their any indications that sudden stratospehric warming has over time increased the heat radiated from the top of the atmosphere ?
As a lay person who takes a keen interest in following climate science I am wondering if this can be visualised as a negative feedback by the climate system burping some of the excess anthropogenic heat away.
Go to Web of Science (subscription required), enter “climate change” (with the quotation marks) as search term, find 2017 under publication years and see that 20,191 studies are listed. Divide by 365 days. For 2018 the number is even 61 per day now, given a total of 22,329 papers. (I used the 2017 total because I started to write this piece before Christmas when 2018 wasn’t over yet.)
As an aside, at Web of Science you can also see that the Caesar et al. paper mentioned above (with the 15% AMOC decline finding) is marked as “hot paper”, meaning “in the top 0.1% of papers in the academic field of Geosciences” according to how often it is cited.
Re #688 Kevin McKinney said #685
“life was comfortable, people had plenty to eat, few hours of work each day, and much time for religion and recreation.”
So, life was not ‘hard’.
However, maintaining it was not ‘easy’
Why do you focus on this? Why should useful work be easy? Why is that a criterion when you have large amounts of free time to rest? This is a moot point.
Aboriginal people followed an extraordinarily complex system of land management. This system used fire and the life cycles of native plants to ensure plentiful wildlife and plant foods throughout the year, all based, says Marcia Langton, on an encyclopaedic knowledge of their environments, seasonal weather patterns and biota.
I don’t point that out to dismiss, nor as criticism of the lifestyle…
For most ‘moderns’, outside of our economic specialties… you don’t need to know much to make it work.
…transitioning back to “encyclopaedic knowledge” is apt to be harder than one might think.
Harder than you think? I never thought it would be easy. One of my oft-repeated taglines is sustainability is simple, but not easy. You’ve seen it before. Since it’s already acknowledged, why are you raising it here? It’s obvious.
I’m not saying it shouldn’t be attempted; just that I think a rapid transition of society en masse to such a model is unlikely.
You realize we’re not H-G’s anymore, right? We can’t be. It takes too much space per person to even attempt it. So, no, we are not talking about an encyclopedic knowledge of Nature, just a functional knowledge of water management, farming, animal husbandry, carpentry, etc., and all the skills spread among the community. Redundancy is vital for resilience – as are our gardens so must be our communities – but it’s not the case we all need to be carpenters, all must farm, all must make shoes, etc. So, yes, the transition is more than manageable. In fact, what we need is not new skills as much as spreading skills that exist. We just need more people having useful skills, not all people having all skills as an aboriginal village would likely have.
This is not a problem in any real sense once the choice is made. We do, after all, still have the internet, libraries, etc. Also, maybe you recall the Regenerative Community Incubator concept? This is exactly the reason for it: Reskilling and rapid transition to small communities. From the time you have the first one, in a perfect world where the incubator fully populates immediately and one year is enough time to apprentice each incubator core participant in several core skills, we go from 1 village to 1 million in about 20 years, give or take. How many do we need if small? Between 500,000 (pop. of 16k as in Cheran)and 36 million (pop. of 250), I’d guess. So, given exponents, year 21 or so sees 1M regenerative communities, 2M in 22, 4M in 23, 8M in 24, 16M in 25, 32M in 26. Let it take 3 years per iteration and we still get a regenerative planet this century. Heck, make it ten years per. That’s only 260 years to completely transform a planet of 9 billion people. Some here think we have that long (we don’t), so those numbers should be pretty comfortable for this crowd.
What would actually happen, however, is that a few iterations of these incubators will coincide with the massive, pervasive entropy of rapid climate changes and resource descent so people will be seeking out this kind of solution themselves. I see a susseration of humanity into mostly self-organized regenerative communities with programs like RCI’s heelping inoculate the process and feed it as it grows.
The Ecovillage Training Center at The Farm already is doing this work in a more amorphous, self-selecting short-term course.
I know, I’ve said this before. But that’s because nothing I’ve heard has offered a persuasive answer
I think there is an element of not wanting to be persuaded. Even outside an RCI process, reskilling is already underway and has been growing. Even here in Korea, there is already the realization a university education is not the ticket it once was, and more young people are choosing not to go despite the highly Confucian nature of the society and massive focus on (over)education.
How does a ‘city person’ become a functional ‘country person’–much less, a functional ‘quasi-First-Nations’ person?
A Straw Man, of course, even if not ill-intentioned. I don’t know if you just don’t see clearly or just don’t want to because I have never said anything like living a quasi-H-G/subsistence life or anything like it. So let’s be clear: We are talking about a world that has already turned it’s physical skin into embedded energy. There’s far more of it than we need. Shifting it around, yes, but we already have all this concrete, steel, etc. Should all big cities pull a Detroit and lose most of its residents? Yup. And take that stuff with you and rebuild/relocate to some empty space and spend the next decades creating a Beltaine Cottage-like paradise in and around your community. Rebuild the landscape around you. Be true stewards. Become like our H-G cousins in pattern, knowledge, awareness, community, not in lifestyle per se. Let the human Nature reestablish itself… with our help instead of hindrance.
There is nothing preventing a pretty smooth transition. Were we really smart we would organize this whole thing on bio-regional bases. Really, just a little organizing.
What I’ve heard real FN people say about the persistence of ‘mainstream’ values and ways of thinking on the part of members of the dominant culture, is not encouraging in this regard.
But just like people saying “Can’t be done!” about climate, economics, etc., it’s already being done and can, in fact, be done. The key is, has anyone told The People this yet? No? Well, then, what do you expect?
Just like Greta saying we gotta tell it like it is (where have we heard that before?!! ;-) ), we have to tell it like it is with the solutions… and where have we heard that before?
How can anyone know if they have yet to be told? So, I’m telling you. Trying to tell them. Let’s go.
More-Persistent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis, and Department of Physics, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Final Form: 25 May 2017
Published Online: 1 February 2018
The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has therefore moved to El Ni?o WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Ni?o developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter.
While most climate models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions for the immediate future, the current ocean warmth and likelihood of ongoing warmer than average conditions mean the risk of El Ni?o remains. Three of eight models suggest that El Ni?o may establish by mid-2019.
Feel free to check any official MET/ENSO info website.
Maybe another mass bleaching event could raise it’s head on the GBR and other southern reefs before too long.
Didn’t take more than 2 days for MLO CO2 to “skyrocket” back to +411 again
January 29: 411.24 ppm
January 28: 411.60 ppm
January 27: 410.96 ppm
January 26: 410.96 ppm
January 25: 410.00 ppm
More 413s right around the corner. Am curious what May 2019 will produce at MLO and Globally. I’ll just have to wait till the numbers come out.